Épidémiologie et médecine

Nakamura, Ken and Orii, Kouan and Kondo, Taichi and Nakao, Mitsutaka and Wakatabe, Makoto,
The Impact of the COVID-19 Outbreak on Intensive Care in Northern Saitama Japan.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3868062

Aizawa, Yuta and Shobukawa, Yugo and Tomiyama, Nobuko and Nakayama, Hitoshi and Takahashi, Masako and Yanagita, Junko and Kaji, Noriko and Ikuse, Tatsuki and Izumita, Ryohei and Yamanaka, Takayuki and Hasegawa, Satoshi and Saito, Reiko and Saitoh, Akihiko,
Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cluster Originating in a Primary School Teachers’ Room in Japan.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3855441 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3855441

Matsushita, Yumi and Yokoyama, Tetsuji and Hayakawa, Kayoko and Matsunaga, Nobuaki and Ohtsu, Hiroshi and Saito, Sho and Terada, Mari and Suzuki, Setsuko and Morioka, Shinichiro and Kutsuna, Satoshi and Mizoue, Tetsuya and Hara, Hisao and Kimura, Akio and Ohmagari, Norio,
Smoking, Comorbidities, and Severity of Disease in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Japan.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3845982 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3845982

Sugawara, Daichi and Chishima, Yuta and Kubo, Takahiro and Shah, Raja Intan Arifah Binti Raja and Phoo, Evone Yee Mun and Ng, Siew Li and Masuyama, Akihiro and Gu, Yuan and Tee, Eugene YJ,
Mental Health and Psychological Resilience During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cross- Cultural Comparison of Japan, Malaysia, China, and the U.S.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3820528 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3820528

Katayama, Yusuke and Tanaka, Kenta and Kitamura, Tetsuhisa and Takeuchi, Taro and nakao, shota and Nitta, Masahiko and Iwami, Taku and Fujimi, Satoshi and Uejima, Toshiyuki and Miyamoto, Yuuji and Baba, Takehiko and Mizobata, Yasumitsu and Kuwagata, Yasuyuki and Shimazu, Takeshi and Matsuoka, Tetsuya,
Incidence and Mortality in Emergency Patients Transported by Emergency-Medical-Service Personnel During the First Surge COVID-19 Pandemic in Osaka Prefecture, Japan; A Population-Based Study.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3768531 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3768531

Saori Kashima and Junyi Zhang 2021 Temporal trends in voluntary behavioural changes during the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan.
Public Health 192  
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2021.01.002

Asami Anzai and Hiroshi Nishiura (2021), "“Go To Travel” Campaign and Travel-Associated Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases: A Descriptive Analysis, July–August 2020", 
J. Clin. Med. 2021, 10(3), 398.
https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10030398
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/3/398

Asami Anzai and Hiroshi Nishiura (2021), "“Go To Travel” Campaign and Travel-Associated Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases: A Descriptive Analysis, July–August 2020"
J. Clin. Med. 2021, 10(3), 398; https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10030398
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/10/3/398

Osama, Iritani et al. (2020), " Clusters of COVID?19 in long?term care hospitals and facilities in Japan from 16 January to 9 May 2020"
Geriatrics and Gerontology International, 20: 715– 719
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ggi.13973

Sachiko, Koder and Essam A., Rashed and Akimasa Hirata, "Correlation between COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality Rates in Japan and Local Population Density, Temperature, and Absolute Humidity"
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2020, 17, 5477.
https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/15/5477

Myo Nyein Aung et al. (2020), "Sustainable health promotion for the seniors during COVID-19 outbreak: a lesson from Tokyo"
The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries 14:328-331. doi: 10.3855/jidc.12684

Oikawa, Masato and Tanaka, Ryuichi and Bessho, Shun-ichiro and Noguchi, Haruko, Do Class Size Reductions Protect Students from Infectious Disease? Lessons for Covid-19 Policy from Flu Epidemic in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13432,
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3643196 
Masato Oikawa,,Waseda University - School of Political Science and Economics
Ryuichi Tanaka, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)
Shun-ichiro Bessho, Keio University
Haruko Noguchi, Waseda University

Shiina, Akihiro and Niitsu, Tomihisa and Kobori, Osamu and Idemoto, Keita and Hashimoto, Tasuku and Sasaki, Tsuyoshi and Igarashi, Yoshito and Shimizu, Eiji and Nakazato, Michiko and Hashimoto, Kenji and Iyo, Masaomi (4/21/2020)
Relationship between Perception and Anxiety About COVID-19 Infection and Risk Behaviors for Spreading Infection: Preliminary Report of a National Survey in Japan.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3582777 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3582777

Nature, 2020/06/08
Flaxman, Seth (Imperial College) et al.
Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7

The Guardian, 2020/06/06
Tomoya Saito, director of the Department of Health Crisis Management at Japan’s National Institute of Public Health 
Contact-tracing and peer pressure: how Japan has controlled coronavirus,
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/06/contact-tracing-japan-coronavirus-covid-19-patients-social-etiquette

Parady, Giancarlos and Taniguchi, Ayako and Takami, Kiyoshi (June 4, 2020) 
Analyzing Risk Perception and Social Influence Effects on Self-Restriction Behavior in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan: First Results.
Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3618769 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3618769

Takashi Odagaki, Research Institute for Science Education, 2020/06/03
Analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan on the basis of an SIQR model
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.02.20117341

Nikkei Asian Review, 2020/05/25
Tokyo's excess deaths far higher than COVID-19 count, data shows
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Tokyo-s-excess-deaths-far-higher-than-COVID-19-count-data-shows

Bloomberg, 2020/05/12
Tokyo Mortality Data Shows No Jump in Deaths During Pandemic 
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/tokyo-mortality-tally-shows-no-surge-in-deaths-during-pandemic 

Omori R (Hokkaido University), Mizumoto K (Kyoto University), Nishiura H (Hokkaido University and CREST, Science and Technology Agency), 2020/04/28 
Ascertainment rate of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, International Journal of Infectious Diseases
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.04.080

Terra nova, 06/05/2020
Paul-André Rosental (SciencesPo)
Un balcon en forêt 2020, essai comparatif sur l’épidémie de Ccvid
http://tnova.fr/notes/un-balcon-en-foret-2020-essai-comparatif-sur-l-epidemie-de-covid
L’historien des populations Paul-André Rosental propose une exploration comparative des données de mortalité liées à la pandémie de Covid-19 dans le but d’approcher l’efficacité relative des réponses nationales à la crise sanitaire dans un échantillon de 24 pays. 

MedRXiv 2020/05/01
Asymptomatic infection and herd immunity of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Japan
Junko Kurita (Tokiwa University), Tamie Sugawara (National Institute of Infectious Diseases), Yasushi Ohkusa (National Institute of Infectious Diseases)
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.01.20087155

Rieti April 2020
Kikuchi, S, S Kitao and M Mikoshiba (2020), “Heterogeneous Vulnerability to the COVID-19 Crisis and Implications for Inequality in Japan”, RIETI Discussion Paper.
https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/publications/summary/20040020.html
Abstract
We study how the COVID-19 crisis could affect earnings inequality across heterogeneous individuals in Japan. We use the Employment Status Survey (ESS) to identify groups of individuals who are more vulnerable to the COVID-19 shocks, which likely affect workers in different industries, occupations, and employment types in different magnitude. We assess the impact using various data and early evidence including expenditures data from the JCB Consumption NOW during the first weeks of the pandemic. Our study identifies significant heterogeneity in vulnerability to the COVID-19 shocks across workers of different types. We find that the crisis will hit low-income groups by more and is likely to significantly exacerbate inequality through multiple channels, calling for urgent and large-scale assistance targeted towards affected individuals.

The Conversation 2020/04/20
Mapping the lockdown effects in India: how geographers can contribute to tackle Covid-19 diffusion
Eric Denis, Olivier Telle, Samuel Benkimoun
https://theconversation.com/mapping-the-lockdown-effects-in-india-how-geographers-can-contribute-to-tackle-covid-19-diffusion-136323

Science 2020/04/22
Did Japan miss its chance to keep the coronavirus in check?
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/did-japan-miss-its-chance-keep-coronavirus-check

La Vie des idées, 2020/04/14
Sortie de confinement, ou la somme de tous les dangers. Covid-19 : chronique d’une émergence annoncée, 2
Philippe Sansonetti
http://www.laviedesidees.fr/Sortie-de-confinement-ou-la-somme-de-tous-les-dangers.html

MedRxiv 2020/04/11
Applying the unified models of ecology to forecast epidemics, with application to Covid-19,Shelby W Loberg, Clarence Lehman (University of Minnesota)
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056754

MedRxiv 2020/04/11
Making sense of the Global Coronavirus Data: The role of testing rates in understanding the pandemic and our exit strategy, Rahul Potluri, Deepthi Lavu (ACALM Big Data Research Group)
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20054239 

MedRxiv 2020/04/11
Work-related Covid-19 transmission
Fan-Yun Lan, Chih-Fu Wei, Yu-Tien Hsu, David C Christiani, Stefanos N Kales (Harvard University)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20058297

MedRxiv 2020/04/11
Closed environments facilitate secondary transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Hiroshi Nishiura, Hitoshi Oshitani, Tetsuro Kobayashi, Tomoya Saito, Tomimasa Sunagawa, Tamano Matsui, Takaji Wakita,MHLW COVID-19 Response Team, Motoi Suzuki 
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v1

Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(7) forthcoming in July 2020 (online version2020/04)
High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
Sanche S, Lin YT, Xu C, Romero-Severson E, Hengartner N, Ke R. (Los Alamos National Laboratory)
https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282

MedRxiv 2020/04/11
Estimation of the percentages of asymptomatic patients and undiagnosed patients of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Hokkaido, Japan by using birth-death process with recursive full tracing
Takuma Tanaka (Shiga University), Takayuki Yamaguchi (Shiga University), Yohei Sakamoto (Jikei University)
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20053934

MedRxiv 2020/04/11
Making sense of the Global Coronavirus Data: The role of testing rates in understanding the pandemic and our exit strategy
Rahul Potluri, Deepthi Lavu (ACALM Big Data Research Group)
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20054239

MedRxiv 2020/04/06
Forecast of the COVID-19 outbreak, collapse of medical facilities, and lockdown effects in Tokyo, Japan
Yoshiyuki Sugishita (Tokyo Metropolitan Government), Junko Kurita (Tokiwa University), Tamie Sugawara (National Institute of Infectious Diseases), Yasushi Ohkusa (National Institute of Infectious Diseases)
(“Collapse of medical facilities can be expected to occur on April 26 if no lockdown occurs. The total number of deaths can be expected to be half a million people. If a lockdown were enacted from April 6, and if more than 60% of trips outside the home were restricted voluntarily, then a collapse of medical facilities could be avoided.”) 
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051490

Guardian 2020/04/05
We are fighting a 21st-century disease with 20th-century weapons 
(David J Hunter, Professor of Epidemiology and Medicine, University of Oxford)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/we-are-fighting-a-21st-century-disease-with-20th-century-weapons

Corriere della Sera 2020/04/01
Coronavirus, Crisanti: «Masks also at home» (Coronavirus, Crisanti: «Mascherine anche in casa»)
(Andrea Crisanti, Professor of microbiology, University of Padua, Italy)
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_aprile_04/coronavirus-crisanti-mascherine-anche-casa-riaperture-ultima-lombardia-prima-sardegna-8a1c8b04-75db-11ea-856e-f9aa62c97d7a.shtml

Corriere della Sera (Milan) 2020/04/01
«The Lombardy region has not curbed the virus, the Veneto region hospitalized less and managed the cases on the territory » («La Lombardia non ha arginato il virus, in Veneto meno ricoverati e casi gestiti sul territorio»)
(Giorgio Palù, Professor of microbiology and virology, Padova University, Italy)
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_aprile_01/palu-la-lombardianon-ha-arginato-virusin-veneto-meno-ricoverati-casi-gestiti-territorio-cbedd220-744d-11ea-b181-d5820c4838fa.shtml

MedRXiv 2020/04/01
Global trends in air travel: implications for connectivity and resilience to infectious disease threats
Ashleigh R Tuite*, Deepit Bhatia**, Rahim Moineddin*, Isaac Bogoch*, Alexander G Watts**, Kamran Khan** (* University of Toronto, ** Dotblue)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.29.20046904v1

MedRXiv 2020/04/01
How will this continue? Modelling interactions between the COVID-19 pandemic and policy responses
Axel G Rossberg, Robert J. Knell (Queen Mary University of London)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047597v1

MedRxiv 2020/03/31
Japanese citizens’ behavioral changes and preparedness against COVID-19: How effective is Japan’s approach of self-restraint?
Kaori Muto (Tokyo university), Isamu Yamamoto (Keio university), Miwako Nagasu (Keio university), Mikihito Tanaka (Waseda university), Koji Wada (International University of Health and Welfare)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048876v1

MedRXiv 2020/03/25
General Model for COVID-19 Spreading with Consideration of Intercity Migration, Insufficient Testing and Active Intervention: Application to Study of Pandemic Progression in Japan and USA 
Choujun Zhan*, Chi K. Tse**, Zhikang Lai***, Xiaoyun Chen***, Mingshen Mo*** (*South China Normal University, **Hong Kong University, ***SunYat Sen University)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20043380v1

The Lancet, 2020/03/30
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
Robert Verity, Lucy C Okell, Ilaria Dorigatti, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Natsuko Imai (et alii)
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf

Nature, 2020/03/30
‘We need to be alert’: Scientists fear second coronavirus wave as China’s lockdowns ease
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00938-0

Sciences, 2020/03/27
Would everyone wearing face masks help us slow the pandemic?
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says

The New England Journal of Medicine 2020/03/25
Novel Coronavirus and Old Lessons — Preparing the Health System for the Pandemic
John L. Hick (University of Minnesota), Paul D. Biddinger, M.D. (Harvard Medical School)
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005118?query=featured_coronavirus

The Institut of Medical Science, The University of Tokyo, 2020/03/23
Identification of an existing Japanese pancreatitis drug, Nafamostat, which is expected to prevent the transmission of new coronavirus infection (COVID-19)
https://www.ims.u-tokyo.ac.jp/imsut/en/about/press/page_00002.html

Medium - 2020/03/20
Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 
Coronavirus: le marteau et la danse (traduction en français le même jour par un membre de l'équipe)
https://medium.com/tomas-pueyo/coronavirus-le-marteau-et-la-danse-bce68d354c0c

The Local (Denmark) 2020/03/20
Why is Denmark's coronavirus lockdown so much tougher than Sweden's?
(Christian Wejse, an epidemiologist at Aarhus University:  "I'm a fan. I think we have a brave government and they've been ready to respond very quickly and in a very dramatic manner, even though the consequences are grave in terms of the economy," he told The Local. "I think what applies here is the old saying, 'if you think preventing disease is expensive: try disease'.")
https://www.thelocal.dk/20200320/why-is-denmarks-lockdown-so-much-more-severe-than-swedens

CNRS NEWS 2020/03/19
Delaying the Epidemic to Help the System Adapt
Interview with Josselin Thuilliez, a health economist, on coronavirus. This CNRS scientist works on epidemics and their impact on individual behaviours, healthcare systems and control policies. He is a member of REACTing, a consortium set up to coordinate research on emerging outbreaks.
https://news.cnrs.fr/articles/delaying-the-epidemic-to-help-the-system-adapt

Le Temps 2020/03/19
Didier Pittet insiste vraiment : «Ce n’est pas le virus qui circule mais les gens» L’infectiologue genevois a offert à l’humanité le gel hydroalcoolique qu’aujourd’hui tout le monde s’arrache
https://www.letemps.ch/societe/didier-pittet-insiste-vraiment-nest-virus-circule-gens

Guardian 2020/03/15
I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire
William Hanage (Harvard)
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/15/epidemiologist-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19 

medRXiv 2020/03/13
Age specificity of cases and attack rate of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Kenji Mizumoto (Kyoto University), Ryosuke Omori (Hokkaido University), Hiroshi Nishiura (Hokkaido University)
(“We examined the age distribution of COVID-19 cases in Japan from January to March, 2020. Children are less likely to be diagnosed as cases, and moreover, the risk of disease given exposure among children appears to be low. Both the overall risk and the conditional risk of disease given exposure are likely to be the highest among adults aged from 50-69 years. The most plausible explanation that we believe is immune imprinting to a similar virus among adults”).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033142v1

The Lancet 2020/03/09
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
Roy M Anderson, Hans Heesterbeek, Don Klinkenberg, T Déirdre Hollingsworth ((Imperial College)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext

Science 2020/03/06
The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
Matteo Chinazzi (Northeastern University, Boston) et al.
(“…The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travellers. … before the travel ban ≈86% of the internationally imported cases originated from Wuhan. After the travel ban, the top 10 contributors to the relative risk are needed to account for at least ≈80% of the internationally imported cases where the top three contributors are: Shanghai (28.1%), Beijing (14%), and Shenzhen (12.8%). In terms of relative risk of importation, the countries at higher risk of importation after the implementation of the Wuhan travel ban are: Japan (11% pre-travel ban, 13.9% post-travel ban), Thailand (22.8% pre-travel ban, 13% post-travel ban), Republic of Korea (7.4% pre-travel ban, 11.3% post-travel ban), Taiwan (9.5% pre-travel ban, 10% post-travel ban), and USA (4.7% pre-travel ban, 5.7% post-travel ban….”)
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/05/science.aba9757
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033142

MedRxiv 2020/02/21
"CoVID-19 in Japan: What could happen in the future?."
Shao, Nian, et al. (Fudan University, Shanghai)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/02/23/2020.02.21.20026070.full.pdf

MedRxiv 2020/02/18
Extended SIR prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in Italy and compared with Hunan, China
Wangping Jia (Chinese PLA General Hospital)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038570v1

Tohoku university School of Medicine, 2020/02/04
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Oshitani Hitoshi (Tohoku university)
https://www.med.tohoku.ac.jp/feature/pages/topics_214.html

Ibuka Y, Ohkusa Y, Sugawara T, et al , Social contacts, vaccination decisions and influenza in Japan, Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2016;70:162-167
https://jech.bmj.com/content/jech/70/2/162.full.pd

Library of Congress, 2015/02
Japan: Legal Responses to Health Emergencies
Sayuri Umeda (Foreign Law Specialist)
https://www.loc.gov/law/help/health-emergencies/japan.php#_ftnref77

????????, 2014
Tanabe M. « Les mesures face aux pandémies »
?? ??, 5??????????????,???????? , 2014, 103 ?, 11 ?, p. 2761-2769, ??? 2015/11/10
?https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/naika/103/11/103_2761/_article/-char/ja/

Emerg Infect Dis. , 2009
Sasaki A, Hoen AG, Ozonoff A, et al. Evidence-based tool for triggering school closures during influenza outbreaks, Japan. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15(11):1841–1843. doi:10.3201/eid1511.090798
?https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2857248/